Chuck Darwin<p>Many administrations evolve in a kind of tug of war between the <a href="https://c.im/tags/activists" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>activists</span></a> who demand attention to their pet causes and the political <a href="https://c.im/tags/realists" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>realists</span></a> who grab the candidate’s arm and tap the sign that reads, “It’s the economy, stupid.”</p><p>And then, every few years, the majority steps back in, <br>determines whether politicians have taken care of prices, crime and peace, and then ruthlessly punishes failure <br>— regardless of whether the activists got what they wanted, and even if they might agree with the activists’ concerns.</p><p>⭐️With Trump, the dynamic is different. <br>He’s so consumed with his grievances and his base’s grievances that rather than there being a tug of war between activists and pragmatists for the politician’s attention, <br>⚠️the activists and the politician are both aligned against the pragmatists.</p><p>That was the clear direction of Trump’s first term. <br>At first he surrounded himself with serious people. <br>Think of the contrast, for example, between Jim <a href="https://c.im/tags/Mattis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Mattis</span></a> as secretary of defense and Pete <a href="https://c.im/tags/Hegseth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Hegseth</span></a>, <br>or between Alex <a href="https://c.im/tags/Azar" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Azar</span></a>, the secretary of health and human services for most of Trump’s first term, and an anti-vax conspiracy theorist like Robert F. <a href="https://c.im/tags/Kennedy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Kennedy</span></a> Jr.</p><p>But the serious people told him no. They tried to block his worst instincts. <br>So they were purged.</p><p>💥Throughout the campaign, Trump ran with two messages. <br>🔸On the airwaves, he convinced millions of Americans that they were electing the Trump of January 2019, when inflation was low, and the border was under reasonable control. <br>🔸At his rallies, he told MAGA that it was electing the Trump of January 2021, the man unleashed from establishment control and hellbent on burning it all down.</p><p>➡️But here is his fundamental problem: <br>The desires of his heart and the grievances of his base are ultimately incompatible with the demands of the majority, <br>🔥and the more he pursues his own priorities, the more he’ll revive his opposition. </p><p>❇️He’ll end his political career as an unpopular politician who ushered in a Democratic majority yet again.<br>The reason goes deeper than <a href="https://c.im/tags/ideology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ideology</span></a> (many of his nominees are extremists) <br>or <a href="https://c.im/tags/scandal" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>scandal</span></a> (Kennedy, Hegseth, and Matt Gaetz, each have their own histories of alleged sexual misconduct, for example). </p><p>Ultimately, it goes to <a href="https://c.im/tags/competence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>competence</span></a>: <br>Can you do the job we ultimately hired you to do❓</p><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/opinion/trump-kennedy-gaetz-hegseth.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">nytimes.com/2024/11/17/opinion</span><span class="invisible">/trump-kennedy-gaetz-hegseth.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare</span></a></p>